India GDP growth rate will be 6-6.3% in the first quarter decrease in revenue collection: Moody’s.
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India GDP growth rate will be 6-6.3% in the first quarter decrease in revenue collection: Moody’s.Rating agency Moody’s It is estimated that the Indian economy will grow at a rate of 6-6.3 percent in the quarter ending June 1 of the current financial year (2023-24). Along with this, Moody’s has also expressed the possibility of ‘slippery’ on the fiscal front due to the government’s revenue being less than expected. Moody’s growth forecast is much lower than the Reserve Bank of India’s estimate of eight per cent for the first quarter of 2023-24. Moody’s Investor Services Associate Managing Director Jean Fang said that India’s general government debt for 2022-23 has been at a very high level of 81.8 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), while the debt capacity is much lower.
India has the potential to achieve high growth
He said that India has the potential to achieve high growth and its strength lies in the stable domestic financial base and strong external position for government debt. Fang said, “We estimate that India’s growth rate in the first quarter of the current financial year will be around 6-6.3 per cent, which is around the 6.1 per cent growth recorded in the last quarter of the financial year 2022-23.” With inflation coming down, we expect household demand to improve, Fang said. Fang said India’s strength with a sovereign rating of ‘Baa3’ is its large and diversified economy, which has the potential to achieve high growth rates. This can be gauged from the strong growth projections amid a weak global economic scenario.India GDP growth rate will be 6-6.3% in the first quarter decrease in revenue collection: Moody’s
Due to this there is a possibility of decrease in revenue
He said the government has largely achieved its fiscal targets in the last two years, allaying concerns over fiscal policy. Government’s fiscal deficit to come down to 6.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022-23 from 6.7 per cent in 2021-22. The difference between government expenditure and revenue is called fiscal deficit. The target of fiscal deficit has been kept at 5.9 percent in the current financial year. “As the government balances its commitment to long-term fiscal stability against high inflation and weak global demand and its more immediate priority to support the economy ahead of general elections in May 2024, We feel there is a possibility of slippage on the fiscal front.India GDP growth rate will be 6-6.3% in the first quarter decrease in revenue collection: Moody’s
The economy will grow at 6.1% in 2023-24
Moody’s estimates that the Indian economy will grow at 6.1 per cent for the entire 2023-24 financial year, while it will reach 6.3 per cent in the next financial year. On a calendar year basis, Moody’s expects growth to remain at 5.5 percent in 2023, rising to 6.5 percent in 2024. Last week, the Reserve Bank of India in the monetary policy review has estimated the growth rate to be at 6.5 percent in the current financial year. The Reserve Bank estimates that the growth rate in the first quarter of the current financial year will be eight percent. It will be 6.5 percent in the second quarter, 6 percent in the third and 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter. Fang said that the government’s general government debt has been 81.8 percent of GDP in 2022-23, which is quite high. Its average for places with a BAA rating is 56 per cent.
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